AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The policy of continuous exaggeration and threats of decisive decisions by Donald Trump no longer creates fear or compels the opponent into immediate retreat. This is because the real limits of the U.S. administration's room for maneuver have become clearer than ever, amid judicial constraints, congressional obstacles, and the stubbornness of foreign rivals.
According to a report by Al Jazeera Net, less than two years after Donald Trump's return to the White House, the U.S. President appears to be facing a test different from all the crises he has survived over the past decade.
While his popularity has fallen to its lowest level of his second term, signs indicate that Trump's most effective political weapon—reliance on a policy of threats, intimidation, and continuous exaggeration—no longer works as it once did, either domestically or internationally. This comes at a time when the war with Iran has become a political burden, threatening the future of the Republican Party in the U.S. midterm elections.
From Shock Politics to Indifference
American and British newspapers and media, despite differing perspectives, have reached relatively similar conclusions in their reports and analyses.
The Washington Post, in an analytical report by two of its correspondents, writes that the world no longer heeds Trump's repeated threats as it once did. Because experience has shown that many of these threats—whether on tariff issues, relations with allies, or the Iran file—ultimately end in retreat or compromise.
The newspaper recalls that in April 2025, when Trump announced a sweeping package of tariffs, global markets reacted swiftly, and dozens of governments traveled to Washington to mitigate its effects. But today, international reactions have become far more subdued, and even financial markets remain almost indifferent to each new threat from the U.S. President.
Brando Benifei, head of the European Parliament's delegation for relations with the United States, described this change as follows: "We have become accustomed to these daily announcements and no longer take them as seriously as before."
Trump Doesn't Get Everything He Wants Domestically Either
Domestically, Trump remains the main player in the political arena and largely sets the domestic policy agenda. But despite this influence, he has failed to force Senate Republicans to keep the criminal cases of Jeffrey Epstein confidential.
He also failed to pass his flagship "American Rescue Act," and this week was forced to make concessions to revive the confirmation process of Todd Blanche as Attorney General, after his previous attempt had failed.
Iran; Trump's Most Difficult Test
According to the Washington Post, the Iran file is the clearest example of Trump's declining ability to impose his will.
Despite extensive U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iranian commanders, the Islamic Republic system remains intact, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—an outcome that has occurred despite Washington's repeated warnings.
Former U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann told the newspaper that Trump's messages to Tehran are contradictory, fluctuating between threats, military strikes, and then retreat. In the view of Iranians, this behavior is a sign of the U.S. President's desperation.
With an ironic tone, he said, "With the way Trump negotiates, I wouldn't even give him a dollar to go to the carpet market."
According to Neumann, Iranian negotiators are well aware that Washington is in a hurry, and therefore see no reason to lower their demands.
The Washington Post also believes that Tehran has realized that time is on its side, especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November and Trump's declining popularity—a factor that has increased Iran's motivation to refrain from making quick concessions.
The World Is No Longer Afraid
This change in behavior is not limited to Iran. According to the Washington Post, Europe has refused to fully enter the war, and Spain has ignored Trump's trade threats.
On the other hand, China has previously used the leverage of rare metals to force Washington to back down, and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also ignored U.S. tariffs without changing his positions.
Jeremy Shapiro, director of the Europe Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Trump has gradually consumed the accumulated political and diplomatic capital of the United States.
He says, "Officials from various countries have realized that Trump behaves like a bully, but that frightening him is not very difficult."
Shapiro also points to the emergence of the acronym TACO in financial markets, standing for "Trump Always Caves Eventually."
Has the Era of Crisis Avoidance Come to an End?
Foreign policy failures have cast a heavy shadow over the U.S. domestic political landscape, especially on the eve of the midterm congressional elections.
Ross Douthat, a New York Times columnist, writes that perhaps Trump's historical ability to escape political crises has now reached its end.
According to him, Trump's approval rating has fallen to around 30 percent—a figure that puts Republicans at risk of losing seemingly safe seats in states like Iowa, Texas, and Alaska, and could even cost them their Senate majority.
Douthat believes Trump's best opportunity is to reach an agreement with Iran before the elections. Such a deal could lower energy prices and create political leverage for him.
However, he warns that Iran is also aware of the importance of timing and will likely seek to extract more concessions by prolonging negotiations.
He concludes, "It is very difficult to imagine how Donald Trump can get out of this deadlock."
Trump's Electoral Coalition Is Eroding
David Graham, a political analyst for The Atlantic, has examined demographic and electoral changes in the United States.
In his view, Trump's gains among young people, Latinos, and African Americans—which helped him win in 2024—are now rapidly eroding.
According to the latest polls, Trump's approval rating fluctuates between 32 and 34 percent, the lowest level since his return to power.
These polls show that support for Trump among young Americans, especially young men, has declined, and support among Latinos, African Americans, and even white working-class voters—who have always been his most important voting base—has also dropped significantly.
The Atlantic attributes this trend primarily to continued economic pressures, rising prices, and the consequences of the war against Iran, and believes that the very voters who turned away from Democrats because of inflation are now distancing themselves from Trump for the same reason.
"The Angry Lover"
John Bowden, an analyst for The Independent, has examined another sign of the pressure on Trump.
He refers to a series of posts Trump published on Truth Social after denying the existence of negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Bowden described these posts as follows: "Trump resembles an angry lover whose partner has left him, and now he is venting his rage on social media."
At one press conference, Trump was asked why he thought this new round of threats would succeed when previous efforts had failed.
His brief response was: "I don't know."
Bowden sees this response as a sign of the lack of a clear strategy to end the war against Iran, especially at a time when polls show a majority of Americans expect the conflict to continue for months or even years, and only about one-fifth of the public supports the continuation of military operations.
Conclusion
In the end, although the four media outlets covered the issue from different angles, they all reached a similar conclusion.
The Washington Post believes the world no longer fears Trump's threats. The New York Times considers it likely that his ability to escape crises has come to an end. The Atlantic speaks of the erosion of the President's voter base, and The Independent highlights signs of his confusion in managing the Iran file.
With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, the coming months will determine whether Donald Trump can once again seize the initiative, or whether the diminishing effectiveness of his shock-and-threat politics has become an irreversible reality.
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